One last Olympic update

Unless the mood strikes me again.

So, this guy from Australia (I referenced him in last night's post) called the US Track team a "laughingstock". I disagree with him, but didn't take it up too much, because it did seem that our team performed at less than their best. But the more I thought about it, the more it irritated me and didn't ring true.

Swaggering sprinters? Where? This isn't Barcelona or Sydney. Tyson Gay is among the most humble sprinters around. Walter Dix just runs, does his job, and takes what comes to him. I don't recall Usain Bolt running for us - now THAT'S a swaggering sprinter. Our 400 team (lest we forget, we swept the medals in the men's 400 and 400 hurdles) was about as low-key and businesslike as you can get, Jeremy Wariner's bad attitude excepted. And the too-frequent failures of our 4 x 100 relay teams in Olympic races continues to disappoint.

But the US team a laughingstock? Let's take a look at the medal count: Hm, US 23, Russia 18, Kenya 14, Jamaica 11, everyone else can go suck it. Hey, where's Australia in that medal count, Scott Gullan of the Herald Sun? Oh yeah...you got 4. So let's keep things in perspective. When things go as badly as they did for the Americans on the track and they still beat the second place team by more medals than Australia won in total (and, by the way, won more golds, silvers, and bronzes than the next closest teams as well)...well, I think you could say American dominance on the track is still doing okay.

With injuries to our top runners in the men's 100, 200, 110 hurdles, 1500 and 5000, as well as disastrous errors in the women's 100 hurdles and 400 meters, our second, or in some cases third best, still won medals. Men's 100 (bronze), 200 (silver and bronze), 110 hurdles (silver and bronze), women's 100 hurdles (gold) and 400 (bronze). That's a good haul for a team weakened by injuries and mistakes. So perhaps Mr. Gullan should rethink what it means to be a laughingstock.

U.S. track has some trouble - but how'd I do?

Well, that was an interesting week. Lots of ups and downs for the US track team, some trends continuing (Jamaica catching up - more like passing us - in the sprints, continued decline in the jumps, weak performances above 400 meters), some new things emerging, and clear indications that we need to get American track refocused, top to bottom.

I'll get to that. But first, how did I do at my predictions? Let's see:

My guess? Flanagan pushes the pace, not wanting to deal with the kick of a Dibaba or the other Africans. Hopefully she doesn't go out too fast - if she can get in under 31:00, she's got a medal. Due to my crush (*le sigh*), I kinda hope Goucher wins the whole thing, but I think she's most likely to finish 5th or 6th.

Success! Flanagan finishes in 30:22 in a fast race and gets a bronze. Kara found herself running under 31:00 for the first time, but still 10th.

Americans will all make the final, but they're going to get their asses kicked in the women's 5,000. They just don't have sub-14:30's in them

Well, this one's weird. No 14:30 needed, with the slowest world-class 5000 I've seen in...well, ever, but really they just ran tactically bad races. When you're running 80-plus second laps at the Olympics with Dibaba in the race, you need to GO. You can't leave it to a sprint. I love me some Kara Goucher, and her kick is fantastic, but she doesn't have a Dibaba-type kick.

* Sorry, American men! Your Olympics are going to be difficult in the distance events. Predictions:

800: Symmonds makes the final, finishes around 8th. Wheating gets into the semis, Smith doesn't survive the heats
1500: Hope! Lagat seems unbeatable, but it's a different year. I'll be a homer and say he wins it. Leo Manzano and Lopez Lomong might survive the semis, getting the whole team into the finals. Unlikely, though.
3000 Steeple: Um, seriously. Nobody's making the finals.
5000: Lagat will make the final, and if the field plays into his hands with a slow, tactical race, could win or medal again. My money says we'll get our first sub 13:00, and no American medals. Tegenkamp and Dobson, enjoy the experience and the semis.
10000: If the race is slower and tactical, Abdi could be in the running, but I think he's most likely to finish around 5th or 6th. Rupp and Torres won't be competitive.
Marathon: Hall could surprise and pull off a medal run, but I think it's not his time yet - 4th is my prediction. In 2012, Hall's going to blow the field up, though!

Well, let's see. Symmonds didn't make the final, but neither Smith nor Wheating survived the heats. So I was, like, 30% right. Lagat failed to survive the semis, running TACTICALLY STUPID RACES. I saw this in Eugene, it concerned me, and it bit him in the ass. Tendinitis or no, you can't spend all your time boxed in in the back of the pack. So I was way wrong on that. Manzano and Lomong did as expected. Steeplechase - Famigliatti surprised me and made the finals (running a bizarre front-running semi and burning himself out in the process). In the 5, Lagat and Tegenkamp made the finals, but as I predicted, no medals AND the first Olympic sub 13:00. In the 10, Abdi was never really in it, nor was Rupp. Torres was REALLY out of it. But, the race was neither slow nor tactical, so that roughly fits what I predicted. Ryan Hall really shit the bed in the marathon, putting forth his worst effort yet, but it is early and he's got talent galore. I still say 2012 is his time.

I called for one medal, but predicted we could easily get nothing, which is exactly what we got. Hrmph.

We could win as many as 7 medals at 800 and above for the women, but a minimum of 2:
800: Hazel Clark could go bronze, although I think the field's just too deep - probably 6th or 7th
1500: Rowbury medals. Guaranteed.
Steeple: One medal. Barringer or Willard, can't predict who pulls out the bronze.
5000: Sorry, guys, it just ain't gonna happen.
10000: Flanagan medals, possibly Goucher.
Marathon: Kastor could surprise!

Oy. Nobody survived the semis in the 800; just a terrible performance. I apologize for guaranteeing a Rowbury medal - she was in it, but didn't have the guns at the right time. She is absolutely good enough to run with those ladies, though. I clearly underestimated the steeple field - an American record apparently will only get you 9th place! 5000, well, I called it. 10, I called this too. In the marathon, whoopsie! Kastor breaks a foot, Lewy Boulet whacks her knee on a bus seat (WHAT??), and that was that.

So what's up with the American team? Other than Tyson Gay, our sprinters are clearly in a down cycle, but Walter Dix is going to be gooood. Gay had a rough couple months - bad time to strain the hammy and miss some training! No matter, Usain Bolt wasn't going to be beaten. Nice, gutsy sweep in the 400, and I admit I enjoy seeing Jeremy Wariner get beat, just because he's such a pouter about it. Lolo Jones (hot hot heat - good lordy she's smoking hot!) ran so well, the end of her race was excrutiating to watch. Same with Sanya Richards, although she kinda did herself in by going out too fast. Our distance runners continue to be outmatched and unprepared for these meets. Damn damn damn. And the relays! It's to the point that I didn't watch the 4 x 100 prelims because this has become a 50/50 chance with the U.S. teams. We've got to get our national teams focused on the team portion of the Olympics so this nonsense doesn't happen - it's embarrassing and inexcusable.

I think the next four years will be somewhat transformative - they have to be. Doug Logan's clearly putting a lot of thought into getting the USATF straightened out, I think he's going to look at our coaching (finally!) and the sprinters won't let themselves continue to be humiliated like they were.

I don't agree with the commenters here (idiots), and this guy's just a douchebag. But, the reality is that our team looked unprepared and in many cases like they didn't take this seriously enough.

When looking at the Kenyans and Ethiopians compared to our distance runners, the big gap appears to be in the depth of their bench. They have dozens of runners 18 - 21 years old running world-class times - an 18 year old won the women's 800, 21 year old won the men's marathon, the Ethiopians had an 18 year old in the men's 5000 final. They have dozens of kids like this. We have four or five guys, spread around multiple events, all in their mid-to-late 20's. This is not how you catch up. We have to stop babying our high school runners. The myth that they'll burn out and won't have a pro career is just that - a myth. These African runners are running world-class times by 15 or 16 years old, and training at a world-class level. When I hear that a talent like Jordan Hasay is running 30 or 40 miles a week during the season and LESS between seasons, I see an enormous opportunity wasted. I see a talent being wasted. And I only see one of her! It's great that California had two girls running at a high level last year, but they are few and far between. And they get to college and are still not training at a world-class level, so four more years are wasted. How fast would Jenny Barringer be in the steeple if she trained like the Kenyans instead of getting babied at the college level (yes, I'm aware her training is hard - but it should be harder)? Why should Galen Rupp have to leave college for a year to train for world-class races? World-class training should be part of the college program, not saved for the post-collegiate athlete.

But what do I know? I'm just a guy seeing what's plainly displayed on my TV screen every time our runners go up against the Africans.

8/16 run

A tough one today! My first workout with the Eastside Runners cross-country team, and it was a doozy.

We did fartleks - 3 minutes hard and 1 minute easy, 5 times. It was at Westhill Park in Bothell, which is a hair less than 1/2 mile in circumference. I made it around exactly 5 times, and finished my last 3 minutes hard session right at the spot where we started. I decided to forgo the last 1 minute easy, as I was totally wiped, so I covered 2 1/4 miles in 19 minutes (yes, I did eventually jog a very short cool-down and stretch).

The good news: This means I ran 2 1/4 miles, in rough conditions (all the hard stretches were uphill into the sun, and it was 80 degrees at 8am), at a faster pace than I ran my 3000 race on Wednesday - 8:27 pace today versus 8:43 pace Wednesday.

The bad news: I felt really rough, and clearly have a LOT of work to do to get ready for this season. Luckily, the first race isn't until the 30th, so I have a couple weeks, and there's a month between that one and the next race, so I've got time to get my act together.

This does tell me that I can get down to 8:00 pace for a 5k by the end of the season, which sets me up well for the winter races and next spring/summer. Not sure how I'll do in longer races, as some of the cross-country races are 8k - hopefully I can get some miles in and get those races under 9:00 pace.

Goals for the cross-country season:
5k: 25:00
8k: 42:00

I also got my uniform for cross-country (woot!). Sadly, it's, um...snug. But, I'm going to use that as motivation to get rid of some action in the midsection and chest, and hopefully I'll have need of a smaller size next year. :-)

I've run just under 36 miles since I started the blog.

8/13 run: 3000m race!

I know, racing in my second run back from a short break...I'm not in good enough shape for this crap! But, it's the last all-comer's meet of the season, and I need to see where I am with the first cross-country race of the season coming up on the 30th. So with that, and sore thighs from Monday's run, I decided to make the trek to Shoreline and enjoy a 3000m time trial. If I wasn't ready, I can just step of the track, right?

I arrived around 8:30pm and stopped by the sign-in table to get my name on the clipboard. The first thing I notice is that next to the 3000m board is a board for a 10000 that is scheduled to go off at the same time. And the 10 has "37:00 minimum" written at the bottom of the page - sort of a "you must be this big..." for the track set. So I see that there's going to be some competitive running, which bodes poorly for me. Curious, I check the board to see who's running 25 laps tonight. Uli Steidl! Oh, joy, winner of 8 straight Seattle marathons and 37th at the World Championships...wonder if I'll be lapped tonight? *sigh*

The answer to that question, of course, was yes. Repeatedly. Approximately every 1 1/4 laps by the leaders, but really every 20 seconds or so by someone, as the crowd got fairly strung out.

Nonetheless, I felt okay at the start, although I went out a bit fast and had to rein myself in (yes, it's all subjective. A 52-second 200 is a bit fast for me). I got through the first 800 in 3:56, having settled down to a pretty even pace, 1200 in 5:58, and then slowing to reach the 1600 in 8:03. I was doing okay, but after the 2000 mark (reached in 10:12 - clearly slowing down now!) I started to really hurt. I didn't hear my time at the 2400 mark because I was gasping for air too loudly, but I know I reached the bell lap at 13:36. I really turned on the jets and finished up the first raced 3000 of my life in 15:39. And I wasn't even last place!

So, I now know I can run 2 miles in 16:46-ish, although could probably go faster if I paced better in the first mile. Given my conditioning coming into this race, I feel pretty good about cross-country. Is it possible I could run 8:00 pace for a 5k by the end of the season? Now, that would make me happy!

8/11 run

Okay, so I backslid. I took a couple weeks off, and MAYBE I had some chalupas. I like chalupas, sue me. Anyway, I got back in the saddle tonight (and an uncomfortable saddle it was). I ran my normal 3-mile loop by the house, in 32:11. Being a little stiff and out of it for a couple weeks, I had to walk a couple times for a total of 2 minutes, so I'm actually pretty happy with the time.