Random musings

I've decided to make this an easy week, as my achilles' have been hurting for a week and my hamstring cramped like a bastard this morning, so I'm taking tonight off. Instead, I'll make you all suffer through whatever's inside my head!

* I want these. I really, really want them.

* What's with the Chinese women and their distance running program? In the mid '90's, they were breaking records - by mind-boggling margins - always in Beijing or Shanghai. Then they just disappeared. Look at the 3000-meter world record. See how far ahead of everyone else Junxia is? Just not possible by legal means, sorry. It's WAY too fishy. Same with the 10,000 - a record set, again, by Junxia in Beijing, 5 days before she ran an impossibly fast 3000! I just don't buy it, and it sounds like there were performance-enhancing drugs involved. Huh. Fancy that.

* I look forward to the women's 10,000 at the Olympics sooooo much. Flanagan and Goucher pushing the Africans? Are you kidding me? It'd be nice to see two medals (especially a gold!) but I think only one is more likely. My guess? Flanagan pushes the pace, not wanting to deal with the kick of a Dibaba or the other Africans. Hopefully she doesn't go out too fast - if she can get in under 31:00, she's got a medal. Due to my crush (*le sigh*), I kinda hope Goucher wins the whole thing, but I think she's most likely to finish 5th or 6th.

* Americans will all make the final, but they're going to get their asses kicked in the women's 5,000. They just don't have sub-14:30's in them, especially in that weather and after what should be a brutal 10,000. 2012, maybe.

* Speaking of Gouchers, Adam Goucher is going to be a monster in the half marathon and marathon (Kara might be, too, when/if she moves up). I'd love to see Hall and Goucher fighting out some 2:05 marathons for the next five years!

* Sorry, American men! Your Olympics are going to be difficult in the distance events. Predictions:

800: Symmonds makes the final, finishes around 8th. Wheating gets into the semis, Smith doesn't survive the heats
1500: Hope! Lagat seems unbeatable, but it's a different year. I'll be a homer and say he wins it. Leo Manzano and Lopez Lomong might survive the semis, getting the whole team into the finals. Unlikely, though.
3000 Steeple: Um, seriously. Nobody's making the finals.
5000: Lagat will make the final, and if the field plays into his hands with a slow, tactical race, could win or medal again. My money says we'll get our first sub 13:00, and no American medals. Tegenkamp and Dobson, enjoy the experience and the semis.
10000: If the race is slower and tactical, Abdi could be in the running, but I think he's most likely to finish around 5th or 6th. Rupp and Torres won't be competitive.
Marathon: Hall could surprise and pull off a medal run, but I think it's not his time yet - 4th is my prediction. In 2012, Hall's going to blow the field up, though!

That's one medal, for you kids counting at home. Five medals is the absolute most we could win (Symmonds, Lagat twice, Abdi and Hall) in the most optimistic viewing, and we could easily be left with no medals above the sprints - again. We've had worse showings, but still.

We could win as many as 7 medals at 800 and above for the women, but a minimum of 2:
800: Hazel Clark could go bronze, although I think the field's just too deep - probably 6th or 7th
1500: Rowbury medals. Guaranteed.
Steeple: One medal. Barringer or Willard, can't predict who pulls out the bronze.
5000: Sorry, guys, it just ain't gonna happen.
10000: Flanagan medals, possibly Goucher.
Marathon: Kastor could surprise!

* Russia's back! 800, Steeple, you name it they've got runners at the top of the lists. Japan could easily surprise and sweep the marathon, and it's just as likely that Kenyans and Ethiopians could run the table at everything above 400m. This is gonna be fun to watch!

* I can't WAIT for the freakin' Olympics to start!