U.S. track has some trouble - but how'd I do?

Well, that was an interesting week. Lots of ups and downs for the US track team, some trends continuing (Jamaica catching up - more like passing us - in the sprints, continued decline in the jumps, weak performances above 400 meters), some new things emerging, and clear indications that we need to get American track refocused, top to bottom.

I'll get to that. But first, how did I do at my predictions? Let's see:

My guess? Flanagan pushes the pace, not wanting to deal with the kick of a Dibaba or the other Africans. Hopefully she doesn't go out too fast - if she can get in under 31:00, she's got a medal. Due to my crush (*le sigh*), I kinda hope Goucher wins the whole thing, but I think she's most likely to finish 5th or 6th.

Success! Flanagan finishes in 30:22 in a fast race and gets a bronze. Kara found herself running under 31:00 for the first time, but still 10th.

Americans will all make the final, but they're going to get their asses kicked in the women's 5,000. They just don't have sub-14:30's in them

Well, this one's weird. No 14:30 needed, with the slowest world-class 5000 I've seen in...well, ever, but really they just ran tactically bad races. When you're running 80-plus second laps at the Olympics with Dibaba in the race, you need to GO. You can't leave it to a sprint. I love me some Kara Goucher, and her kick is fantastic, but she doesn't have a Dibaba-type kick.

* Sorry, American men! Your Olympics are going to be difficult in the distance events. Predictions:

800: Symmonds makes the final, finishes around 8th. Wheating gets into the semis, Smith doesn't survive the heats
1500: Hope! Lagat seems unbeatable, but it's a different year. I'll be a homer and say he wins it. Leo Manzano and Lopez Lomong might survive the semis, getting the whole team into the finals. Unlikely, though.
3000 Steeple: Um, seriously. Nobody's making the finals.
5000: Lagat will make the final, and if the field plays into his hands with a slow, tactical race, could win or medal again. My money says we'll get our first sub 13:00, and no American medals. Tegenkamp and Dobson, enjoy the experience and the semis.
10000: If the race is slower and tactical, Abdi could be in the running, but I think he's most likely to finish around 5th or 6th. Rupp and Torres won't be competitive.
Marathon: Hall could surprise and pull off a medal run, but I think it's not his time yet - 4th is my prediction. In 2012, Hall's going to blow the field up, though!

Well, let's see. Symmonds didn't make the final, but neither Smith nor Wheating survived the heats. So I was, like, 30% right. Lagat failed to survive the semis, running TACTICALLY STUPID RACES. I saw this in Eugene, it concerned me, and it bit him in the ass. Tendinitis or no, you can't spend all your time boxed in in the back of the pack. So I was way wrong on that. Manzano and Lomong did as expected. Steeplechase - Famigliatti surprised me and made the finals (running a bizarre front-running semi and burning himself out in the process). In the 5, Lagat and Tegenkamp made the finals, but as I predicted, no medals AND the first Olympic sub 13:00. In the 10, Abdi was never really in it, nor was Rupp. Torres was REALLY out of it. But, the race was neither slow nor tactical, so that roughly fits what I predicted. Ryan Hall really shit the bed in the marathon, putting forth his worst effort yet, but it is early and he's got talent galore. I still say 2012 is his time.

I called for one medal, but predicted we could easily get nothing, which is exactly what we got. Hrmph.

We could win as many as 7 medals at 800 and above for the women, but a minimum of 2:
800: Hazel Clark could go bronze, although I think the field's just too deep - probably 6th or 7th
1500: Rowbury medals. Guaranteed.
Steeple: One medal. Barringer or Willard, can't predict who pulls out the bronze.
5000: Sorry, guys, it just ain't gonna happen.
10000: Flanagan medals, possibly Goucher.
Marathon: Kastor could surprise!

Oy. Nobody survived the semis in the 800; just a terrible performance. I apologize for guaranteeing a Rowbury medal - she was in it, but didn't have the guns at the right time. She is absolutely good enough to run with those ladies, though. I clearly underestimated the steeple field - an American record apparently will only get you 9th place! 5000, well, I called it. 10, I called this too. In the marathon, whoopsie! Kastor breaks a foot, Lewy Boulet whacks her knee on a bus seat (WHAT??), and that was that.

So what's up with the American team? Other than Tyson Gay, our sprinters are clearly in a down cycle, but Walter Dix is going to be gooood. Gay had a rough couple months - bad time to strain the hammy and miss some training! No matter, Usain Bolt wasn't going to be beaten. Nice, gutsy sweep in the 400, and I admit I enjoy seeing Jeremy Wariner get beat, just because he's such a pouter about it. Lolo Jones (hot hot heat - good lordy she's smoking hot!) ran so well, the end of her race was excrutiating to watch. Same with Sanya Richards, although she kinda did herself in by going out too fast. Our distance runners continue to be outmatched and unprepared for these meets. Damn damn damn. And the relays! It's to the point that I didn't watch the 4 x 100 prelims because this has become a 50/50 chance with the U.S. teams. We've got to get our national teams focused on the team portion of the Olympics so this nonsense doesn't happen - it's embarrassing and inexcusable.

I think the next four years will be somewhat transformative - they have to be. Doug Logan's clearly putting a lot of thought into getting the USATF straightened out, I think he's going to look at our coaching (finally!) and the sprinters won't let themselves continue to be humiliated like they were.

I don't agree with the commenters here (idiots), and this guy's just a douchebag. But, the reality is that our team looked unprepared and in many cases like they didn't take this seriously enough.

When looking at the Kenyans and Ethiopians compared to our distance runners, the big gap appears to be in the depth of their bench. They have dozens of runners 18 - 21 years old running world-class times - an 18 year old won the women's 800, 21 year old won the men's marathon, the Ethiopians had an 18 year old in the men's 5000 final. They have dozens of kids like this. We have four or five guys, spread around multiple events, all in their mid-to-late 20's. This is not how you catch up. We have to stop babying our high school runners. The myth that they'll burn out and won't have a pro career is just that - a myth. These African runners are running world-class times by 15 or 16 years old, and training at a world-class level. When I hear that a talent like Jordan Hasay is running 30 or 40 miles a week during the season and LESS between seasons, I see an enormous opportunity wasted. I see a talent being wasted. And I only see one of her! It's great that California had two girls running at a high level last year, but they are few and far between. And they get to college and are still not training at a world-class level, so four more years are wasted. How fast would Jenny Barringer be in the steeple if she trained like the Kenyans instead of getting babied at the college level (yes, I'm aware her training is hard - but it should be harder)? Why should Galen Rupp have to leave college for a year to train for world-class races? World-class training should be part of the college program, not saved for the post-collegiate athlete.

But what do I know? I'm just a guy seeing what's plainly displayed on my TV screen every time our runners go up against the Africans.